By Spy Uganda
Fears are mounting over the possibility of renewed armed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, as hostile rhetoric between the Horn of Africa neighbours has intensified in recent weeks.
Landlocked Ethiopia’s renewed demands for access to the Red Sea specifically through Eritrean territory have triggered a fierce exchange of statements, reviving long-standing tensions between the two countries.
A Long & Bitter History
Eritrea, with 1,350km (840 miles) of Red Sea coastline, won independence from Ethiopia in 1993 after a decades-long armed struggle, leaving Ethiopia without direct access to the sea. A border war followed just five years later, claiming more than 100,000 lives.
Relations improved briefly after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took office in 2018, culminating in a peace declaration with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki that helped earn Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize. The two governments later cooperated during Ethiopia’s civil war in Tigray from 2020 to 2022.
But this rapprochement has since unravelled.
Abiy has increasingly framed Ethiopia’s lack of sea access as an existential threat. In 2023, he openly declared that access to the Red Sea was a national necessity a position Eritrea swiftly rejected.
Tensions escalated further when Abiy and senior military officials began publicly asserting Ethiopia’s claim to the southern Eritrean port of Assab, located only 60km (37 miles) from the border.
On 1 September, Abiy said Ethiopia’s “mistake” of losing access to the Red Sea would be “corrected tomorrow.” Ethiopia’s ambassador to Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, went further, describing Assab as “Ethiopia’s wealth” that would be reclaimed “by force.”
Army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula questioned how “the interests of two million people” a reference to Eritrea could outweigh those of Ethiopia’s population of over 130 million. He and other senior officers have repeatedly suggested that taking Assab may be necessary to secure Ethiopia’s future.
Eritrea Warns Of ‘Red Line’
Eritrea has responded cautiously but firmly. Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel has dismissed Ethiopia’s claims as a “dangerous” and “toxic agenda” of irredentism. On 16 September, Eritrea warned that efforts to legitimise “flagrant aggression” would have grave consequences and constituted a “red line that should not be crossed.”
In a rare military statement on 13 November, the Eritrean army cautioned Ethiopian leaders not to lead their population “into a quagmire,” warning that crossing the red line would mean “plunging into an abyss.”
Although there have been no confirmed major troop deployments along the border, Ethiopia has showcased its growing military capacity. State television has broadcast graduation ceremonies for thousands of new cadets and displayed newly acquired tanks, artillery, and armoured vehicles.
Senior officers have claimed the army is in a “reliable position,” with tens of thousands of young recruits joining. President Taye Atske Selassie recently promoted 66 senior officers, underscoring Ethiopia’s “elaborate” military preparedness.
Eritrea, with its long-standing mandatory national service, has not held public parades but is believed to be reinforcing internal controls. Pro-opposition Asena TV reported in October that the government has restricted troop movements, ordering forces to remain in their current positions.
Both governments have mobilised state and affiliated media to shape public opinion.
Ethiopian state broadcasters routinely air commentary asserting that Ethiopia “unjustly” lost its Red Sea ports and must reclaim them. Footage of demonstrations and military graduations often includes placards declaring “Assab is ours” and “from the dam to the sea.”
Local outlets report that the government is coordinating an online network described by one US-based outlet as a “digital army of 60,000” to amplify its messaging.
Eritrean state media accuse Ethiopia of attempting to “revisit issues settled decades ago” and of trying to incite conflict by reviving a resolved territorial dispute.
Interestingly, Ethiopia’s assertive posture has led some foreign-based Eritrean opposition outlets typically critical of their government to rally around Eritrean national unity. UK-based Asena TV has urged Eritreans to set political differences aside, while Paris-based Radio Erena has condemned Ethiopia’s “provocative statements.”
Ethiopia and Eritrea’s fraught history colonisation, federation, annexation, a 30-year independence war, and a devastating border conflict continues to shape their relations. Though the 2018 peace agreement briefly raised hopes for lasting reconciliation, the recent escalation in rhetoric suggests those gains may be slipping away.
While neither side has yet mobilised forces on a scale indicating imminent war, the increasingly heated statements from Ethiopian leaders and the firm warnings from Eritrea have heightened regional anxieties.
For now, both countries remain locked in a dangerous war of words. Whether it evolves into something more destabilising remains an open and worrying question.
