By Spy Uganda Correspondent
Under the Trump administration, the US has put sanctions on Chinese officials over human rights issues in Xinjiang and Hong Kong while also increasing engagement with Taiwan, including arms sales, a trade deal to end a protracted tariff war that has resulted into more restrictions on Chinese state media by the US.
Also, Biden, who in a presidential debate referred to the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, as one of several âthugsâ Trump has cosied up to, has also promised to take a strong stance against China.
Wendy Cutler, a former acting deputy at the Office of the US Trade Representative, focusing on Asia says, âRegardless of who wins the US presidential election, we should expect to see increasing US-China tensions across a broad range of economic, political, geo-strategic, human rights and people-to-people issues for the years to come.â
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In response to Beijing imposing a controversial national security law in Hong Kong, the Trump administration placed sanctions on officials connected to the crackdown, downgraded the cityâs special customs status and warned financial institutions against conducting âsignificantâ transactions with anyone deemed to have undermined Hong Kongâs autonomy.
In Taiwan the US has sent high-level government visitors, drawing recrimination from Beijing, increased military exercises in the region and launched a new economic dialogue with Taipei. There have been calls for the US to end its policy of âstrategic ambiguityâ, a way of discouraging both Beijing and Taipei from making a military move by refusing to say if the US would come to Taiwanâs aid.
âThe mutual distrust has never been higher,â said Bonnie Glaser, director of the China Power Project at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. âI think many in China think the US has basically abandoned its one-China policy,â she said, referring to Beijingâs view that Taiwan is part of China.
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Biden has pledged to work with allies to pressure China through the multilateral organisations that Trump has eschewed. Analysts expect the Democratic candidate if elected, to work with China on issues such as climate change and response to the pandemic.
In contrast, Trump is expected to continue a more confrontational, unilateral strategy that is likely to raise tensions. While Trumpâs approach is likely to place more immediate pressure on China, Bidenâs is seen by others as more predictable and comprehensive.
Last year Trump described pro-democracy protests as âriotsâ. According to his former national security adviser John Bolton, Trump told Xi to âgo ahead building the campsâ in Xinjiang, describing the mass internment campaign as âexactly the right thing to do.â
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Some optimists in China believe another four years of Trump would give both countries time to negotiate a trade deal. Still, others believe there is potential for ties to dramatically worsen. âThe current situation couldnât be any worse. If it does get worse, military conflict is near,â said Cheng.
In China, state media have portrayed the pandemic in the US, Black Lives Matter protests and the chaos of the first presidential debate as yet more examples of the failing American democratic experiment.
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âWhile China is worried about Trumpâs aggressiveness over the short-term, it also believes that over the long-term he is accelerating American decline,â said Rush Doshi, director of the Brookings China Strategy Initiative.