By Kungu Al-mahadi Adam
Uganda’s political landscape is a battleground where opposition forces face an uphill struggle against President Yoweri Museveni’s entrenched regime.
In this high-stakes environment, unity among opposition leaders is not just strategic—it’s existential.
Yet, the escalating feud between Bobi Wine, the charismatic leader of the National Unity Platform (NUP), and Mathias Mpuuga, his former deputy, threatens to fracture the opposition at a critical juncture.
This internal conflict is not merely a distraction; it risks being suicidal for the opposition’s prospects in the 2026 elections and beyond.
The rift, which has played out publicly in recent months, stems from allegations and counter-allegations that have eroded trust between two of Uganda’s most prominent opposition figures.
Bobi Wine has accused Mpuuga of corruption, pointing to a controversial Shs500 million “service award” Mpuuga received as Leader of the Opposition, labelling it a betrayal of NUP’s principles.
Wine has gone further, suggesting Mpuuga’s complicity in the arrests of opposition figures like the late Muhammad Ssegirinya and Allan Ssewanyana, branding him a “double agent” working with the regime.
Mpuuga, in response, has dismissed these claims as baseless, accusing Wine of “diversionary politics” and labeling him “unstable” and “directionless.”
These exchanges, amplified on social media and in the press, have turned a private disagreement into a public spectacle.
This feud is more than a clash of egos—it’s a strategic disaster.
The opposition in Uganda operates under immense pressure, with Museveni’s government wielding state institutions to suppress dissent.
Opposition activists face abductions, torture, and politically motivated charges, as seen in the recent case of Eddie Mutwe, Bobi Wine’s bodyguard, who was allegedly detained and tortured by Museveni’s son, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba.
The regime’s tactics thrive on division, exploiting any cracks to weaken its challengers. By turning on each other, Wine and Mpuuga are doing Museveni’s work for him, handing the National Resistance Movement (NRM) a gift-wrapped opportunity to tighten its grip on power.
The timing could not be worse. With the 2026 general election looming, the opposition needs to consolidate its base and present a united front.
Bobi Wine, a former pop star turned politician, has galvanized Uganda’s youth with his message of change, but his confrontational style and allegations against Mpuuga risk alienating moderates within NUP and beyond.
Mpuuga, a seasoned politician with a reputation for pragmatism, commands significant support, particularly in the Buganda region.
His marginalization could drive his supporters—potentially a sizable bloc—toward other parties or even apathy, diluting the opposition’s electoral strength.
Historical precedent underscores the peril of division. In the 2021 election, opposition fragmentation contributed to Museveni’s victory, despite widespread reports of irregularities.
The Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), once Uganda’s leading opposition force, has been weakened by internal splits, paving the way for NUP’s rise.
If NUP now splinters, it could cede ground to the NRM or embolden other opposition factions to compete rather than collaborate, further fracturing the anti-Museveni vote.
Beyond electoral math, the feud undermines the opposition’s moral credibility. NUP’s appeal lies in its promise of integrity and accountability—values Wine accuses Mpuuga of betraying.
Yet, airing these grievances publicly, without concrete evidence, risks portraying the opposition as petty and hypocritical.
Mpuuga’s counterattacks, questioning Wine’s leadership, deepen the perception of disarray.
Voters, already skeptical of politicians’ motives, may grow disillusioned, while the regime can point to the chaos to justify its crackdowns as necessary for “stability.”
The path forward requires urgent reconciliation. Both leaders must recognize that their personal grievances pale in comparison to the broader struggle for Uganda’s future.
Wine, as NUP’s president, should prioritize dialogue over accusations, seeking to reintegrate Mpuuga or at least de-escalate the rhetoric.
Mpuuga, for his part, must address the allegations transparently, whether by clarifying the “service award” or engaging constructively with NUP’s leadership.
A mediated resolution, perhaps involving respected elders or civil society, could help rebuild trust. Failing that, both risk dragging NUP into the same quagmire that has crippled other opposition movements.
The stakes are existential. Museveni, now in his 80s, and his son Muhoozi, who looms as a potential successor, are counting on the opposition’s self-destruction.
The regime’s recent moves—raiding NUP’s headquarters, detaining activists, and threatening military trials for civilians—signal an intensifying clampdown.
In this climate, a divided opposition is not just vulnerable; it’s complicit in its own demise. Bobi Wine and Mathias Mpuuga must bury the hatchet, not sharpen it. Their feud is a luxury the opposition cannot afford.
For the sake of Uganda’s democratic hopes, they must unite—or risk consigning their movement to irrelevance.
The writer is a Ugandan journalist with a passion for current African Affairs.
The writer can be contacted via ad********@***il.com
